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Bitcoin vs the money supply

Bitcoin went up. So did the amount of dollars.

Pick a start month and compare Bitcoin's progress with that of M2, the US money supply. Two curves, one point per month, with Federal Reserve data.

Data up to …

Each shortcut picks a new start month, which becomes the reference for the calculation. The chart always starts at that month.

Over a long period, the logarithmic scale shows the early years better: the same height stands for the same percentage change.

  • Bitcoin price
  • Bitcoin adjusted for M2
  • Common start

One point per month · last Bitcoin reading of the month

Loading the data…

Left and right arrows: previous or next month. Page Up and Page Down: one year later or earlier. Home and End: first and last month. Each month is announced.

Selected month

Hover or tap the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read a month.

Bitcoin: mempool.space · M2: FRED, M2SL series (Federal Reserve) · Swiss franc: FRED, DEXSZUS series · Method and sources

See the chart data as a table

The blue curve is not a price you could buy at: it measures Bitcoin's performance relative to the growth of M2.

What is M2?

M2 is the money readily available in the US economy: banknotes and coins in circulation, money in checking and savings accounts, small time deposits (under $100,000) and retail money market fund shares. The Federal Reserve, the Fed, publishes it every month, in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted.

It rises almost all the time. From July 2010, the tool's first month, to August 2026, it went from $8,642 billion to $23,343 billion: multiplied by 2.7.

But not at a steady pace. Between February 2020 and February 2021, it jumped 26.8% in one year, something unseen since the series began in 1959. And from December 2022 to February 2024, it was lower than a year earlier: the only declines in the whole series.

Why compare Bitcoin with M2?

The number of bitcoins is capped at 21 million, on a schedule known in advance. The number of dollars grows with credit and monetary policy decisions. When you measure Bitcoin in dollars, you measure it with a ruler that keeps getting longer.

So the question becomes: has Bitcoin grown faster than the amount of dollars? The blue curve answers it month by month. It takes the Bitcoin price and divides it by the growth of M2 since your start month.

A made-up example

If Bitcoin doubles while M2 grows by 50%, its progress adjusted for M2 is 33.3%.

The math: 2 ÷ 1.5 = 1.333, i.e. +33.3%. Not 100% − 50% = 50%: you divide the changes, you don't subtract the percentages.

This figure is a performance relative to M2, nothing more. It doesn't tell you what share of Bitcoin's rise comes from money creation: its price also depends on adoption, interest rates, regulation and market emotions. The tool compares two changes; it doesn't explain one by the other.

The start month changes everything

The month you pick is the reference: both curves start from the same point. From there, the gap between them is exactly the growth of M2 since that month. The more M2 grows, the further the blue curve stays below the orange one.

Starting just before 2020 or just after changes M2's growth a lot. Starting at a Bitcoin peak or trough changes Bitcoin's even more. No start month is "the right one": try 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and the full history, and see what holds from one period to the next.

The shortcuts don't zoom: they pick a new start month, so a new reference. That month is always shown above the chart.

This is not an inflation adjustment

Consumer price inflation measures what a basket of goods and services costs. It answers "what can you buy with your money?". M2 measures an amount of money. Adjusting for M2 answers a different question: "has Bitcoin grown faster than the money supply?".

The two don't move at the same pace. Between February 2020 and February 2021, M2 rose 26.8% and US consumer prices 1.7%. From January 2020 to August 2026, M2 gained 51% and prices 29%. Adjusting for M2 is therefore not the same as adjusting for inflation.

In CHF, each price is converted at the exchange rate of the day of its reading, then adjusted with the same US M2: the tool doesn't replace it with a Swiss money supply. The franc's moves against the dollar add to Bitcoin's: when the franc strengthens, the CHF performance is lower than in USD, and vice versa.

Frequently asked questions

Why the US money supply, even in CHF?

Because Bitcoin trades mostly against dollars, or dollar-backed tokens, and US M2 is a long, public monthly series. The CHF view changes the unit of the price, not the reference money supply.

Why only one point per month?

Because M2 is only published once a month. For Bitcoin, the tool keeps the last available reading of each month, with its exact date. Until around 2022, the source only gives one reading per week: a month's point can then date from a few days before the end of the month.

Why does the data stop before the current month?

A month only enters the comparison once it is over, and only once M2 is published for it. The Fed publishes it on the fourth Tuesday of every month, for the previous month. The "Data up to" line above the chart gives the last month used, and the three figures cover that same period.

Can the figures change?

Yes. The Fed sometimes revises past M2 values, and the site reloads the whole series twice a day. The comparison uses the data available today, which can differ from what was published at the time.

Does the blue curve show what Bitcoin would be worth without money creation?

No. It compares two changes. Nobody knows what Bitcoin would be worth in a world where M2 had not moved: interest rates, the economy and people's behavior would have been different.

Method and sources

The formulas, sources and conventions, to check every figure.

Show the detailed method

The formulas

P(t) is the Bitcoin price in month t, in the chosen currency, M(t) the level of US M2 in month t, and t0 the start month.

M2-adjusted price: P_adjusted(t) = P(t) × M(t0) ÷ M(t). In month t0, both values are identical.

Bitcoin: [P(t) ÷ P(t0) − 1] × 100. M2: [M(t) ÷ M(t0) − 1] × 100. Adjusted Bitcoin: [(P(t) ÷ P(t0)) ÷ (M(t) ÷ M(t0)) − 1] × 100. Never the difference between the two percentages.

The Bitcoin price

Source: mempool.space, price history in dollars. For each month, the tool keeps the last available reading whose time (UTC) falls within the month, if it dates from the last seven days of the month, and shows its exact date.

The source doesn't publish the same thing every year: one price per week (Monday) until September 2013, then one close per week (Thursday) until 2022 or 2023, then one close per day, and one reading per hour since late 2022 or late 2023. The source serves two versions of its history, more or less detailed depending on the year: for each month, the tool keeps the latest reading it has been able to read. In the weekly years, a month's point can date from up to seven days before the end of the month: it is not an exact month-end close.

Check: each reading was compared with the daily close of another exchange, Bitstamp. Median gap: 0.1% since 2014. Before 2014, the market was tiny and split across a few exchanges: prices could differ by several percent from one to another, so those years are indicative.

M2

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), M2SL series from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: US M2, monthly, seasonally adjusted, in billions of dollars. The tool uses the series levels, not its annual changes.

An observation's date refers to the reference month, not the publication day. The values used are those available today: they may have been revised since first published, and may be again.

The Swiss franc

Source: FRED, DEXSZUS series (Federal Reserve H.10 release): Swiss francs per 1 dollar, noon rate in New York, one per business day.

Each price is converted with the rate published for the date of its reading. A day without a quote (weekend, US holiday) takes the last rate published before that date, at most seven days earlier. Never today's rate for the whole history. The same M(t0) ÷ M(t) factor then applies to the price in francs.

The period and updates

The last month used is the last complete month for which both the price and M2 exist (in CHF, an exchange rate is also needed). The three figures under the chart cover exactly the period shown, from the start month to that last month.

The site reloads the sources every twelve hours, M2 revisions included. If a source doesn't respond, it keeps its last valid data and shows their date. Without valid data, the tool shows a message rather than a chart: no value is made up or interpolated.

Sources consulted

  • mempool.space, REST API, GET Historical Price: Bitcoin price history in dollars, no key or subscription. Source of the tool's prices. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • FRED, M2 (M2SL): US M2, monthly, seasonally adjusted, in billions of dollars. Public domain, citation requested: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 [M2SL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • Federal Reserve, H.6 Money Stock Measures: definition of M2 (M1, small time deposits under $100,000, retail money market funds) and release schedule: the fourth Tuesday of every month. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • FRED, Swiss Francs to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXSZUS): Swiss francs per 1 dollar, noon buying rate in New York, one per business day. Public domain, citation requested: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Swiss Francs to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate [DEXSZUS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • Federal Reserve, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates: the Federal Reserve's exchange rate release, source of the DEXSZUS series. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • FRED, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL): US consumer price index (Bureau of Labor Statistics), cited to compare M2 with inflation. Accessed on October 11, 2026.
  • Bitstamp, API documentation: daily BTC/USD closes, used only to check the tool's prices, never shown. Accessed on October 11, 2026.

Go further

An information tool, not investment advice: past performance, even adjusted for M2, says nothing about future prices.

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